Here’s again for this week’s upcoming news releases and as usual, I’ll be sending you more detailed analysis for each and every one of the high impact tradable releases listed below:
1. Mon August 2, 2010 4:30am EST – UK Manufacturing PMI:
2. Mon August 2, 2010 10:00am EST – US ISM Manufacturing PMI:
3. Mon August 2, 2010 9:30pm EST – AU Retail Sales:
4. Tue August 3, 2010 12:30am EST – RBA Interest Rate:
5. Wed August 4, 2010 4:30am EST – UK Services PMI
6. Wed August 4, 2010 8:15am EST – US ADP NFP Employment:
7. Thu August 5, 2010 7:00am EST – UK BOE Interest Rate:
8. Thu August 5, 2010 7:45am EST – EU ECB Interest Rate:
9. Fri August 6, 2010 7:00am EST – CA Employment Change
10. Fri August 6, 2010 8:30am EST – US NFP Employment Change
And of course as usual, there are some untradable news releases:
- Mon August 2, 2010 3:15am – CH Retail Sales – Usually CH is not affected by its fundamental outlook, but by the market’s risk sentiment. Best to skip it than trying to force a trade….
- Tue August 3, 2010 10:00am – US Pending Home Sales – Most of the time market just ignores this release, and especially so when home sales are expected to be under pressure, so there is no real surprise factor.
- Tue August 3, 2010 9:30pm – AU Trade Balance – Not tradable by historical records, rather not waste time on this release.
- Wed August 4, 2010 10:00am – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – Track records of this release are showing a general muted reaction, therefore best to skip it.
- Wed August 4, 2010 6:45pm – NZ Employment Change – I usually don’t trade this release as market usually fails to react. NZD is a risk and commodity currency. Best to trade this currency on risk sentiment than on fundamental outlook.
- Thu August 5, 2010 8:30am EST – EU Trichet Press Conference – I will try to write an analysis for this release, but I do not recommend anyone that’s not experienced with Trichet’s speech to trade it. Market could go violently and it’s better to stay out.
- Fri August 6, 2010 4:30am EST – UK PPI & Manuf. Prod. – Not market moving news releases. Best to stay out and concentrate on the REAL mover at 8:30am.
Following the upcoming overview tradition, let’s take a look at the week before last week and how the market traded last week:
EUR remained unchanged
GBP gained 1.0% against USD
CAD gained 2.0% against USD
AUD gained 3.0% against USD
NZD gained 2.0% against USD
JPY lost 1.0% against USD
CHF remained unchanged
…and last week (7-26~30, 2010)
EUR Gained 1.5% against USD
GBP gained 1.5% against USD
CAD gained 0.5% against USD
AUD gained 1.0% against USD
NZD remained unchanged against USD
JPY gained 1.0% against USD
CHF gained 1.0% against USD
With 2 weeks of consecutive broad losses on the USD, market is certainly looking at this week’s NFP for direction. With major releases from USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, and AUD all scheduled for the week, the directional bias for the weekly trend is hard to determine. I would remain on the sidelines for the time being… But, here are my thoughts and take it using your own excellent judgment.
AUD should be bearish and my opinion is twofold. First, RBA is not expected to hike interest rate and the accompanied statement should be bearish as there are no expectations for rate hikes until 2011. Second, the general sentiment of risk aversion could take over this week’s general market trend as the world is once again reminded in the bleak outlook of US Employment sector. My view is to SELL AUD/USD from the top and my target is still on the 0.8650 level. This is a longer-term outlook, but I believe for AUD/USD to remain at the current level it would take a tremendous amount of positive momentum… It is like going upstream and eventually it will have to come down…
JPY is likely to react to risk sentiment, but my long-term outlook is for a weaker JPY as technically this currency is screaming for a consolidation, but based on market sentiment, BOJ has brought up intervention possibilities in the event, that most traders believe, when USDJPY breaches the 85.00. I for one do not expect to see this level anytime soon, but I’d be buying USD/JPY at 85.00 if we get there. As USD/JPY is certainly forming a bottom around the current levels (87~85), a broader long-term view is for USD/JPY back above the 90s…
So folks, this is it. I’ll be sending you more detail analyses for each and every one of the tradable releases this week before their schedule. Make sure you’ve signed up for my newsletter…
Henry Liu
Related posts:
- Forex Trade Plot For NZ Retail Sales m/m 07/13/10
- Forex Market Weekly Analysis March 22, 2010
- New Zealand Retail Sales 01/20/10
- RBA Cash Rate Choice 04/06/10
- RBA Cash Rate choice 03/01/2010
- UK Retail Sales 03/25/2010
- UK Revised GDP q/q 02/26/2010
- Forex Fundamental Economic Outlook 08/10/09
- Forex Market Update & Analysis – 06/01/10
- Forex Trading Strategy For ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 07/06/10
Forex Signal Overview August 2~6, 2010
Related Blogs